Nice, France. Dreadful. Avoidable ? 

Vehicle Borne Attack

Could the dreadful events of Nice possibly been foreseen ? Tragically;The Answer for Emergency/Security Planners  is Yes. This is the 3rd ‘Major Attack ,’ at Least 12th Incident in France in 18 Months. France itself has become a Soft Target.

ISIS has urged  for Lone Operators to - ‘Use a rock, a gun, a vehicle…’, whatever you can get your hands on, to Attack Infidels. So, we do indeed have the information we need to make our next set of decisions. How then, do we go about, making our 'Next Set of Decisions' ? Most unfortunately, Nice highlights some very fundamental answers.

In an interview on MSNBC  last night Counter-Terror Expert Malcolm Nance mentioned some CT Basics: Suicide Vehicle-Borne Attack, and Point of Failure.

Project Planners, of whatever variety, need to ask some very basic questions - What is our Goal ? What do we need to do to achieve our Goal ? In Emergency/Security/CT Management the task becomes to parse these questions to specific Need:  

Who/What are we Defending? What does it look like ? How does it work ? Has this been done before ? What does it look like ? How does it Work ?

This then, gives us the Information to proceed. What are we Defending Against ? - Identify the Threat. We repeat the process - What does That look like ? How does It work ? Has this been done before? This leads to Identification and Assignment of Specific Tasks.

All good Planing asks This Question - What  If that fails? What is Plan'B'? Plan 'C' ? For Emergency Planners, Plan 'C' can be a very tragic place. If the Attack has defeated Plan 'A', Plan 'B', ('Point of Failure'), we are usually at the point of Mass Causality Incident Management. Back to Basics - What is our Goal ? What do need to achieve our Goal ? What does it Look like? How does it Work ? And of course- What if That fails...?

As Mr. Nance noted, the most urgent Failure in Nice occurred when the Attack Vehicle quickly and easily defeated a flimsy Traffic Control Barrier. When that occurred, Mass Causality Plan Implementation was inevitable. Is it too much to ask, that given the nature of the event, the threat-level, and recent previous attacks, that more secure Vehicle-Defense Barriers should have been present?

Those unfamiliar with Defense/Emergency Planning could easily view this as '2nd Guessing', or 'Armchair Quarterbacking'. Those of us involved in the work know; This is What We Do: Post- Incident Analysis. What Worked ? What Failed? How can we apply this Information to our own Needs ?

Any Plan is only as good as its Implementation. Assurance of Implementation is achieved through the previously mentioned Identification of  and Assignment of specific Tasks. The formula to achieve the hoped-for success at this point includes Outcome Measures: Identification and Evaluation of progress/failure toward successful achievement of previously Identified Outcomes. During the time of Operation, Supervision means continuous Monitoring of Plan Compliance, and Identification of, and Solution of Failures in Plan Compliance.

Lest anyone think I'm giving away too much here, I wholeheartedly assure you that this is how our Enemies Operate their Plans.