8/27 ISIS/ISIL/IS: Battlefield

ISIS/ISIL/IS: Battlefield

One of the indicators that the enemy formerly known as ISIS is an ever-evolving foe, is that it is now called by yet another name. It seems we’re back to where we started. Once known as AQI, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, it then came to be known as the Islamic State in Iraq. ISI. As this combatant force expanded into Syria, It became the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, ISIS.

As ISIS began to gain and hold territory,  the White House and others began to refer to this dreadful foe by its more current self-proclaimed and more ambitious  moniker, Islamic State in the Levant; ISIL. The Levant is described by Miriam Webster’s and others, as the countries bordering on the                          E Mediterranean, more specifically , the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea north of the Arabian Peninsula and south of Turkey, usually including the area of Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.

As Anti-ISIS coalition Ground and Air Forces began to implement their will against the enemy, though, ISIS was forced to give over held territory and retreat from the Battlefield. Therefore, the whole Levant notion became somewhat inaccurate and outmoded. As significant gains were made in Iraq, the ISIS tag too, became somewhat misleading. Now reduced to ever more precarious holdouts in Syria, Islamic State in Syria (IS), may also prove inadequate.

That’s’ not to say IS/ISIS is defeated, though they most certainly are in Retreat from the present Battlefield. Over time, IS, has proved a versatile foe. Although in retreat in Iraq and Syria, their versatility is on display elsewhere. Having had Time and Territory to establish, recruit, train and arm a Terrorist Force, their operations now take on a more International scope.

And with marked success. Having been responsible, or at least blamed for various deadly Global Terrorist Operations, IS has demonstrated the ability and a willingness to continue the Fight.

So while they might be in Retreat from their ‘Levant’ Battleground, the threat posed is no less great, only Different. Remembering we are not just fighting an Enemy, but an Ideology, our efforts too, must adapt to become no less great, only Different.

Nice, France. Dreadful. Avoidable ? 

Vehicle Borne Attack

Could the dreadful events of Nice possibly been foreseen ? Tragically;The Answer for Emergency/Security Planners  is Yes. This is the 3rd ‘Major Attack ,’ at Least 12th Incident in France in 18 Months. France itself has become a Soft Target.

ISIS has urged  for Lone Operators to - ‘Use a rock, a gun, a vehicle…’, whatever you can get your hands on, to Attack Infidels. So, we do indeed have the information we need to make our next set of decisions. How then, do we go about, making our 'Next Set of Decisions' ? Most unfortunately, Nice highlights some very fundamental answers.

In an interview on MSNBC  last night Counter-Terror Expert Malcolm Nance mentioned some CT Basics: Suicide Vehicle-Borne Attack, and Point of Failure.

Project Planners, of whatever variety, need to ask some very basic questions - What is our Goal ? What do we need to do to achieve our Goal ? In Emergency/Security/CT Management the task becomes to parse these questions to specific Need:  

Who/What are we Defending? What does it look like ? How does it work ? Has this been done before ? What does it look like ? How does it Work ?

This then, gives us the Information to proceed. What are we Defending Against ? - Identify the Threat. We repeat the process - What does That look like ? How does It work ? Has this been done before? This leads to Identification and Assignment of Specific Tasks.

All good Planing asks This Question - What  If that fails? What is Plan'B'? Plan 'C' ? For Emergency Planners, Plan 'C' can be a very tragic place. If the Attack has defeated Plan 'A', Plan 'B', ('Point of Failure'), we are usually at the point of Mass Causality Incident Management. Back to Basics - What is our Goal ? What do need to achieve our Goal ? What does it Look like? How does it Work ? And of course- What if That fails...?

As Mr. Nance noted, the most urgent Failure in Nice occurred when the Attack Vehicle quickly and easily defeated a flimsy Traffic Control Barrier. When that occurred, Mass Causality Plan Implementation was inevitable. Is it too much to ask, that given the nature of the event, the threat-level, and recent previous attacks, that more secure Vehicle-Defense Barriers should have been present?

Those unfamiliar with Defense/Emergency Planning could easily view this as '2nd Guessing', or 'Armchair Quarterbacking'. Those of us involved in the work know; This is What We Do: Post- Incident Analysis. What Worked ? What Failed? How can we apply this Information to our own Needs ?

Any Plan is only as good as its Implementation. Assurance of Implementation is achieved through the previously mentioned Identification of  and Assignment of specific Tasks. The formula to achieve the hoped-for success at this point includes Outcome Measures: Identification and Evaluation of progress/failure toward successful achievement of previously Identified Outcomes. During the time of Operation, Supervision means continuous Monitoring of Plan Compliance, and Identification of, and Solution of Failures in Plan Compliance.

Lest anyone think I'm giving away too much here, I wholeheartedly assure you that this is how our Enemies Operate their Plans. 

7/9/16   J.R.W.
Mid-East Conflict Made Easy Simple
The World’s a busy place. Life’s a busy place. Business is a busy place. So it’s entirely understandable that you, (or more accurately, I), may not be completely caught up on the finer details of The Mid-East Conflict.
Fortunately for folks like us, (me), there are people like Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, “ISIS-Inside the Army of Terror”, and Richard Engel, ‘’And Then All Hell Broke Loose”. I don’t intend this to be a Book Review, other than to say each of these Works is insightful, immensely helpful, as well as masterfully written, and that the Authors are each brilliant, courageous, and thoroughly skilled in their craft.
I am also a huge fan of agencies and services like the Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs, as well as CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. I announce this in introduction lest anyone come to the conclusion that I’ve examined the Mid-East Conflict, and come to my own conclusions. Well, I have, somewhat. But it’s all the result of hard work by folks much smarter, (and more hard-working), than I.
The current turmoil in Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and recently Paris, Brussels, San Bernardino, Orlando, etc.… involving the aforementioned countries as well as Iran, Saudi Arabia, U.S.A, Russia et al., can be traced to an animosity, several thousand years old between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Of course, it’s not all that quite simple, there are a variety of mitigating circumstances that include Anti-Semitism, and hatred of Christians and Western Imperialist, Capitalist Empires. But Sunni v. Shia Islam acrimony is at the core of today’s Mid-East Mayhem.
You may have already known that, but perhaps you, like I, are not real clear on the precise details. I wondered why that if Sunni Oppression of Shiites in Iraq was the problem there, then why didn’t the Iraq war fix that problem?
 And if Majority- Shia Iran wanted the “Sunni Arab” Sadam Hussein deposed, why do those two places seem to be still very much at war? And if Hussein was, as he said he was, a “Sunni Arab”, why did the Sunni Arabs of al-Qaeda want him dead?
Also, if the Rulers of Syria are Shiite, why are so many Shia rooting for his departure from the planet? It’s all very confusing, I’m really quite busy with other things, and as long as it all stays ‘Over There’, then, I’m not overly concerned. 
Except: It’s not staying ‘Over There, it’s coming ‘Here’. And if it’s all too confusing, then all I need to do is give some time and attention to the likes of Weiss, Hassan, Engel and Amanpour. Also, I’m writing a Novel about a multi-pronged Terrorist Attack on NYC, so I really should know a thing or two about Terrorism. Enter the Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs, PBS’s Frontline, and various other Mid-East Sources.
So, here’s the thing – After the Geo. W. Bush Administration launched its fallacious and poorly planned overthrow of Saddam, they then disbanded the largely Sunni Military, leaving Iraq without Defense against enemies Foreign and/or Domestic. Then the U.S. oversaw the election of a mostly Shiite National Government, which proceeded to annihilate Iraqi Sunnis. This infuriated Sunni Arabs far and wide, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was born. Unable to defend itself because among other things, the Iraqi Military had been disbanded, it fell to the invading occupying army, the U.S. and its scant and hastily assembled allies.
Unprepared and not particularly interested in that job, U.S./Allied Forces scrambled about Iraq, doing what they could, and would to contain the chaos. Being already committed to maintaining ever-more precarious control in Afghanistan, the U.S. Armed Forces were already stretched thin. When it became clear to Iraqi Shiites that they were being pretty much left to fend for themselves against marauding Sunni Forces, they formed Militia’s armed mostly with looted U.S. Weapons, and civil war ensued. The combat between Sunni and Shia continues to this day, by varying degrees and by various actors. We witness recent Sunni Jihadist Terror Attacks against the Iraqi Shiite populace and Government Sites.
Osama bin-Laden and al-Qaeda had been hoping to attack Sadam Hussein in Iraq because he was a secular, not Islamist Fundamentalist leader. Fortunately for bin-Laden and his Sunni Arab Jihadists, the U.S. and Geo. W. Bush deposed Hussein and disbanded the Iraqi Armed Forces.
Lately, Iraq Civil war has continued. With increasing U.S. Military support, the present Iraqi Government’s Armed Forces have been able to make substantial progress against Jihadist Combatants. Shia Iran would prefer a destabilized Iraq, to a secular, U.S. supported Government there, so War continues.
Now, on to Syria – I mistakenly assumed that because the Assad Regime, present and previous, was Shiite, things should remain subdued there. Wrong. It turns out that Syria has, according to various sources, an approximately %75 Sunni Muslim population. The brutally oppressive Assad Regime had been able, for a long time, to keep tight rein on all opponents. But as the Arab Spring saw the toppling of dominant rulers in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Iraq crumbled into Civil War, Syrian dissidents and foreign fighters were emboldened into open rebellion.
Also, it turns out that the Assad Tribe is the ‘wrong kind’ of Shia. They are Alawite, a minority Muslim Sect that is viewed by Shiites and Sunni alike as Apostate. Thereby worthy of the wrath of all Muslim Jihadists and Fundamentalists, and not entitled to any mainstream Muslim support. Thus, instability reigns. 
It has been noted in various observations that ISIS has exported its Terrorist atrocities abroad because of military defeats in the Iraq/Syria ‘Caliphate’. While this is probably true to a certain degree, it is not completely accurate. Long before ISIS and like-minded Jihadists suffered territorial losses, they were recruiting, training, equipping, ‘Combatants’ for Operations abroad, as well as planning attacks, and making logistic/tactical arrangements for such ‘Operations’.
See? Easy, I mean Simple.